With the Corona-virus spreading rapidly, the Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi announced a three-week nationwide lockdown which will have a huge detrimental impact on businesses. Corona-virus will impact India’s economic growth “severely”, as the coronavirus “lockdown” is causing significant disruption across multiple sectors. The probability of countries entering into recession and companies going bankrupt has increased and India is not likely to “remain decoupled” from the global meltdown.
A national curfew for 21 days will definitely go a long way in reducing the transmission of the deadly virus. But what happens after 21 days? The virus won’t disappear after that. Not until we get a vaccine, and it will take at least a few months to vaccinate every Indian even after a vaccine has been developed. A few months is a very optimistic estimate. In other words, we are in this mess for years.
As assuming 300 working days in a year, the daily output comes to Rs 45-50,000 crore which can potentially be lost due to national lockdown. The biggest worry due to the COVID is the scale of unemployment which is far more serious this time as it is a result of a closure for what can be considered to be practically an undefined period as nobody knows, leading to a muted recovery,”
More importantly, reverse migration of all those who left their jobs due to the shutdown would take time which could be at least a month, impeding a faster recovery. At the same time, a shutdown does not really mean that production comes to a complete standstill as all essential goods are to be produced which means the food segment should be up. The same holds for agriculture even though food grain may not be reaching the cities and towns, which means even though farmer income may not increase, production is recorded.
The “Home Ministry” issued a list of exemptions but try explaining them to the cops on the street. The Indian police is doing what it loves to do the most: beating up Indians with lathis(why they are doing so??). Meanwhile, lakhs of trucks are stranded on state borders. Supply chains for the most essential items have been disrupted, including medicines, milk, groceries, food and newspaper deliveries. Nobody in the prime minister’s office seems to be aware of any such thing as crop harvesting, or the Rabi season, as farmers wonder how they’ll do it amid this national curfew.
The evidence so far suggests that the government does not have the capacity to think through the details of planning and execution.
Is our Modi Government thinking about the youth(future of our country)??
They will get the job? Or due to this huge economic loss over the world wide will lead to the fearing recession period.
This is turning out to be another face of demonetization. Demonetization and GST resulted in killing demand, and this poorly planned national curfew will kill supply chains. We’ll be left with the great Indian discovery, theZERO.
At this rate, more Indians might die of hunger than of coronavirus.
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